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some polls show the state tightening, but generally, it's been moving more towards romney than the obama camp would have hoped. >> what about on the race front, we look at the white and non white vote split. what do you see? >> you see the president per foming significantly underneath that 40% margin that john king took. this is difficult to talk about because you don't like seeing our politics polarized by race. democrats have had a deficit with white voters for more than 30 years. now, president obama made up a lot of that ground in 2008 and democrats have made up for it by having a significant edge, but this combination of a tough economy means that the president's having a hard time getting his white support above 40%. that is a real issue. in the long run, democrats have made a smart bet on diversity. republicans can't hope for a large share of the white vote to bring them over the top, but this is an issue in this collection and with the tough economy, huge implications that both campaigns are going to be paying a lot of attention to. >> thanks very much. race does matter in this e
some polls show the state tightening, but generally, it's been moving more towards romney than the obama camp would have hoped. >> what about on the race front, we look at the white and non white vote split. what do you see? >> you see the president per foming significantly underneath that 40% margin that john king took. this is difficult to talk about because you don't like seeing our politics polarized by race. democrats have had a deficit with white voters for more than 30 years....
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>> wolf, you know, our poll showed obama leading romney by three points here, i interviewed govern nor both of them were dismissing public polling saying our models show that the turnout is going to favor republicans. republicans are more enthusiastic. but i went out this morning with some afl-cio organizers. people are talking about turnout. the obama campaign says they've contacted over 120 million vote ners all these battleground states. they have a larger and more sophisticated ground operation. so that's what going on in the end. it's going to come down to turnout. this is a base election. and that's what both campaigns are doing right now is getting their people to vote early, either the obama campaign is doing their famous souls to the polls push tomorrow morning after churches. that's what we're looking at now. >> peter doing some good reporting for us in clumus ohio. still to come, more on the race for the white house. we've got a lot more on the race for the white house. >>> we're also following the aftermath of the superstorm sandy, four days in a shelter with no shower. we'
>> wolf, you know, our poll showed obama leading romney by three points here, i interviewed govern nor both of them were dismissing public polling saying our models show that the turnout is going to favor republicans. republicans are more enthusiastic. but i went out this morning with some afl-cio organizers. people are talking about turnout. the obama campaign says they've contacted over 120 million vote ners all these battleground states. they have a larger and more sophisticated ground...
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Oct 27, 2012
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you saw the poll, likely voters in ohio, 50% for obama, 46 for mitt romney. this is a critically important state we like to say and it's true, no republican has won the white house without taking ohio. >> no republican has ever won without it. that's a statistical tie. even though that's been the margin of error for months, the president has been ahead in ohio. here's what we're going to watch, over here. the president did well on this area four years ago. the romney campaign thinks the attacks on the coal industry will help him here. this is one state when you look at the male, white vote. if you look in wisconsin, michigan and ohio, this is where the auto bailout plays out. you see the president standing among white males a little bit higher in those states with a piece of the auto industry than other places. and when you look at the electoral map. it is almost impossible for romney to win without that. so he's in play there right now, but slight edge to the president. >> if the president wins ohio, it will be because of the auto industry. >> that's the num
you saw the poll, likely voters in ohio, 50% for obama, 46 for mitt romney. this is a critically important state we like to say and it's true, no republican has won the white house without taking ohio. >> no republican has ever won without it. that's a statistical tie. even though that's been the margin of error for months, the president has been ahead in ohio. here's what we're going to watch, over here. the president did well on this area four years ago. the romney campaign thinks the...
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Oct 27, 2012
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president obama holding a four-point lead in this new poll, slightly outside the margin of error and significantly right at the crucial 50% mark. so the question is, what is driving the numbers in ohio right now? chief national correspondent john king has some answers. >> well, anderson, that narrow ohio lead for the president is within the poll's sampling error but it is yet another poll showing the president with a small persistent lead in the state of ohio. let's take a closer look at why it is happening in this state that is so important in the pick for president. here's the main reason right here. governor romney gets the republicans. the president gets the democrats but at the moment, in our survey, the president has a narrow lead among ohio voters who define themselves as independents. that is the battleground in a big battleground state, if you win the independents you are likely to win. governor romney close but the president with an important edge among independent voters. there's also an age divide, if you look at likely voters in ohio. among voters under the age of 50, th
president obama holding a four-point lead in this new poll, slightly outside the margin of error and significantly right at the crucial 50% mark. so the question is, what is driving the numbers in ohio right now? chief national correspondent john king has some answers. >> well, anderson, that narrow ohio lead for the president is within the poll's sampling error but it is yet another poll showing the president with a small persistent lead in the state of ohio. let's take a closer look at...
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Nov 2, 2012
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the poll in the state of colorado, the new international poll shows 15% of likely polls backing obama. 48% backing romney, a two-point lead that's within the sampling error. 49-45, also within the margin of error. now today, governor romney's camp said he will campaign in pennsylvania on sunday. they claimed the deep blue key stone state is in play. they said the same thing in a memo but didn't cite any specific polling or other data. the obama campaign called it a sign of desperation on their part. joining me now with the raw politics, chief white house correspondent, jessica yellin, national correspondent jim acosta and correspondent john king. >> the storm has been a real curveball for candidates. how has mitt romney been handling transitioning back to regular campaign mode? does he feel that it may have stopped his momentum at all? >> what we saw earlier from mitt romney, he went back on offense. after dialing back his criticism of president obama in the immediate aftermath of superstorm sandy, he went on the attack today. he ridiculed the idea for the secretary and he unleashed t
the poll in the state of colorado, the new international poll shows 15% of likely polls backing obama. 48% backing romney, a two-point lead that's within the sampling error. 49-45, also within the margin of error. now today, governor romney's camp said he will campaign in pennsylvania on sunday. they claimed the deep blue key stone state is in play. they said the same thing in a memo but didn't cite any specific polling or other data. the obama campaign called it a sign of desperation on their...
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Oct 27, 2012
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the latest poll shows obama up by four points. some see that as proof romney can win. a statement both campaigns are now using to get out the vote in ohio. will it work? here's cnn's gary tuckman. >> reporter: ohio, the electorate bull's eye of this political season. mitt romney working the crowds in columbus. while barack obama pumped up his supporters in the evening in cleveland. both men receiving wild ovati ovations. while the crowd reaction is great, will that enthusiasm drive them to the polls on election day? even among the fervent obama supporters at this rally this is a common theme. >> more excited four years ago or more excited today? >> i'd say -- honestly, i was more excited four years ago. >> reporter: meanwhile, fervent supporters at the romney rally often have their own nuanced motivations. are you more motivated by wanting obama to lose? >> wanting obama to lose, most definitely. he let the whole country down. >> reporter: candidates appreciate any kind of support. but the more unconditional and enthusiastic that support is, the more likely that voter
the latest poll shows obama up by four points. some see that as proof romney can win. a statement both campaigns are now using to get out the vote in ohio. will it work? here's cnn's gary tuckman. >> reporter: ohio, the electorate bull's eye of this political season. mitt romney working the crowds in columbus. while barack obama pumped up his supporters in the evening in cleveland. both men receiving wild ovati ovations. while the crowd reaction is great, will that enthusiasm drive them...
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obama had been up as much 11 and 1 points over the summer and fall, but in a quinnipiac poll, he was only up by four. paul and ryan along with john avlon in toledo, ohio. romney has outspent the president in pennsylvania since he became the nominee. i saw this. i was stunned when our producer looked at these numbers. of the 15 million total, just in this week alone. is this money well spent? >> i think it makes a lot of sense for this reason. now, it's true that ohio might be a tighter state, but the question is, r it's the marginal benefit. mitt romney spent a ton of time in ohio and if spending an additional few hours as we get closer to the election could make a big difference in pennsylvania given he has spent far less time in that state, that's what you've got to think about. real additional hours in ohio make that much of a difference there, where as in pennsylvania, it could be a difference in defeat. it's 20 electoral votes versus 20 in ohio. this could really scramble the map. >> i'm going to look at the map in a second, but first, paul, i want to go to you. mitt romney has
obama had been up as much 11 and 1 points over the summer and fall, but in a quinnipiac poll, he was only up by four. paul and ryan along with john avlon in toledo, ohio. romney has outspent the president in pennsylvania since he became the nominee. i saw this. i was stunned when our producer looked at these numbers. of the 15 million total, just in this week alone. is this money well spent? >> i think it makes a lot of sense for this reason. now, it's true that ohio might be a tighter...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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what we've seen in the polls is president obama having a small but steady lead. mitt romney has been unable to kind of reverse that momentum here in ohio. a couple different reasons. take a look at poll. president obama big lead with women. governor romney, big lead with men. governor romney has a two-point edge with independent voters in our poll, but president obama has an almost 20-point lead with self-described moderate voters. >> that's interesting that there's a distinction those two. >> a very important distinction and hasn't happened in political history. the taeea party moving to the right. we're just in the toledo where the jeep plant s.unemployment was 13% in that city when president obama took office. now it's at 7% rate. manufacturing, the middle class, these are the sweet spots of a democratic pitch, and they have been able to say that mitt romney, a state where the bain ads, have had an effect would not be a good stewart that have reinvestment. president obama's core argument here is economic and it's also saying, look, the policies that mitt romne
what we've seen in the polls is president obama having a small but steady lead. mitt romney has been unable to kind of reverse that momentum here in ohio. a couple different reasons. take a look at poll. president obama big lead with women. governor romney, big lead with men. governor romney has a two-point edge with independent voters in our poll, but president obama has an almost 20-point lead with self-described moderate voters. >> that's interesting that there's a distinction those...
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the latest cnn poll of polls shows that obama is up by 3 points. so take a look at that. what can we read, if anything, into those numbers? is that sort of within the margin of error or not? is it enough to -- for the obama campaign to feel safe or no? >> well, it is close enough, don, for the romney campaign to overcome an election day if they have a significant turnout. a significant intensity, a significant energy event. one of the things that is interesting about ohio, some of the other swing states have gone up and down. the president was up 3, then tide, then governor up was up 1 or 2 or the president's lead has fluctuated. ohio has been steady throughout the general election season. if you go back to april, we knew governor romney would be the nominee, the president has pretty consistently has been ahead 3 or 4 points, a pretty consistent lead for the president. what does that tell you, this state has been relatively static, part of it is all the ad spending you talked about. the most disappointed people in ohio on wednesday will be the owners of the local televisi
the latest cnn poll of polls shows that obama is up by 3 points. so take a look at that. what can we read, if anything, into those numbers? is that sort of within the margin of error or not? is it enough to -- for the obama campaign to feel safe or no? >> well, it is close enough, don, for the romney campaign to overcome an election day if they have a significant turnout. a significant intensity, a significant energy event. one of the things that is interesting about ohio, some of the...
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i saw a poll right before the storm that had a tie there. but i'll tell you what's key, erin, to look at now. with just a few days left, and that is barack obama has not broken 50%. he's down in the 47, 48, has been for what, the better of two months now? he can't break that number, whether it's ohio or florida or virginia, colorado. and on election day, there's a couple of things that will matter. if you're undecided, they'll break for the challengers. so they'll break with the challengers. we have an amazing ground game. we're going to have our votes out there, the intensity is with us. all the fundamentals of this campaign are with mitt romney and that's because he's the best candidate out there with a great, great deal to offer american voters. >> thank you very much. appreciate your time. next, as much of the nation focuses on hurricane sandy, the candidates are increasing that focus on ohio. without it, it's almost impossible to become president. and the sandy cell phone phenomena. just if you look at this, we'll hold it up for a secon
i saw a poll right before the storm that had a tie there. but i'll tell you what's key, erin, to look at now. with just a few days left, and that is barack obama has not broken 50%. he's down in the 47, 48, has been for what, the better of two months now? he can't break that number, whether it's ohio or florida or virginia, colorado. and on election day, there's a couple of things that will matter. if you're undecided, they'll break for the challengers. so they'll break with the challengers. we...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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not every poll has obama winning in ohio. >> first if you look at the whole group of polls we have a two-point romney lead to a five or six-point obama lead, the average is going to do better a than any one poll individual think, polling is difficult now, because you can only get about ten percent of people on the money, polls are hoping that those people who they do get are representative of the ones whom they don't get, different views about who will turn out and who won't, about the, differ on the democrat grafnls and statistical uncertainty as well. >> depending on the model the poll uses will affect the result. >> a different hype these almost. >> .. if you assume a more vigorous turnout because obama has good ground game for example those have him winning, no more at that like opportunity thousand ten environment where republican enthusiasm prevail they have a very tight in ohio instead. >> rose: okay. but do you say when you look at all of these polls, i have noted you are a statistician, you noted in the polling you measure other polls? >> rightment. >> rose: do you measure t
not every poll has obama winning in ohio. >> first if you look at the whole group of polls we have a two-point romney lead to a five or six-point obama lead, the average is going to do better a than any one poll individual think, polling is difficult now, because you can only get about ten percent of people on the money, polls are hoping that those people who they do get are representative of the ones whom they don't get, different views about who will turn out and who won't, about the,...
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i was just in ohio this week and i can tell you, looking at the polls, you thought obama's going to win it but if you talk to people on the ground, they say that's not the feeling we have here, especially the republicans. they're pretty confident they will have a big turnout coming from the evangelicals, for example. >> gloria, with unemployment numbers out today, obviously doesn't seem like the numbers have had much of an impact on the polls one way or another the past few months. is there any reason to think this month might be different so close to election day? >> no, i don't think it's really going to have any impact, because you can look into these numbers today and you can take out of it -- each side can take something out of it, a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. mitt romney can point to that and say you know what, things are not going in the right direction. the president can say there was more job creation than some anticipated, that this is a recovery, that is continuing, that it is not sporadic, that he has created five and a half million jobs. so you know the argumen
i was just in ohio this week and i can tell you, looking at the polls, you thought obama's going to win it but if you talk to people on the ground, they say that's not the feeling we have here, especially the republicans. they're pretty confident they will have a big turnout coming from the evangelicals, for example. >> gloria, with unemployment numbers out today, obviously doesn't seem like the numbers have had much of an impact on the polls one way or another the past few months. is...
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barack obama, if you look at the polling data, he has built a pretty significant lead among women voters. these are issues women care a lot about. barack obama is directly addressing them, directly saying, if you want your rights as a woman to plan your own life, your rights as a woman, to table to assert yourself, you better vote for me, because mitt romney will rein in those rights. that issue resonates very strongly around iowa. women voters can make a difference in this election. if you look at polling, the voters isong male pretty even. among women voters, barack obama has a pretty strong lead. this election in iowa and in many other states, i think, is going to be a turn out the game. can getan get thei -- who their voters to the polls on election day. barack obama, to say, i have a lead with women voters, so let's make sure we get them out on election day and let's give them a reason to show up. this is what he thinks is the reason women will show up and vote for employer. host: a story in the quad city times -- iowa is the focus of our conversation right now with my glover, a sen
barack obama, if you look at the polling data, he has built a pretty significant lead among women voters. these are issues women care a lot about. barack obama is directly addressing them, directly saying, if you want your rights as a woman to plan your own life, your rights as a woman, to table to assert yourself, you better vote for me, because mitt romney will rein in those rights. that issue resonates very strongly around iowa. women voters can make a difference in this election. if you...
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and at least in these polls, obama is ahead, florida, virginia and ohio. and that's is where this thing is tilting, it is just an incredibly difficult map for romney to navigate. >> bill: "wall street journal" i think is one of the most credible polls, and yet your poll showed 47-47 on the national poll. how do you explain that? >> it's not as if the national numbers are going to be wildly different from the states, but there are states that are standing out there in a strange island. there has been one poll in a month and a half that put romney up in ohio and that was a rasmussen poll like two days ago. we have one coming out this sunday which will be the last that we do. he was very big in the south. mitt romney's numbers are really big in texas and other places that don't necessarily matter. obama's numbers are going to be fairly mediocre in blue states so we're seeing a little bit of an imbalance. and then just the difficulty of these states that need to be won desperately by mitt romney. he should own florida right now for his own safety and he is cam
and at least in these polls, obama is ahead, florida, virginia and ohio. and that's is where this thing is tilting, it is just an incredibly difficult map for romney to navigate. >> bill: "wall street journal" i think is one of the most credible polls, and yet your poll showed 47-47 on the national poll. how do you explain that? >> it's not as if the national numbers are going to be wildly different from the states, but there are states that are standing out there in a...